Big Winning Day
This is From December 6, 2005
Upon entering the trading floor this morning I noticed that the fixed income futures had jumped higher on news that the retail sales were lower than expected (Redbook yy and mm). This was interpretted as a possibility that the economic over expansion was slowing down and the fed might not raise rates after the obvious rate hike coming Dec 13th. This strength from the bonds seemed to trigger a rise in the index futures as well (based on timing). This was a signal that the two would be correlated today. Housing data came out around 10:00 which said that the housing market was decreasing softly, which was good news when added to the redbook from earlier.
Several days ago housing data came out showing that the market was still booming, which blew up the rates on bonds. With this new data, I looked back to see where the bonds were settled before first set of housing numbers. Bond prices had a long way to run before they got to that point. Stocks as well had similar distances to run up before hitting resistance areas.
After getting long I placed stop loss orders and checked to see if any more news would come out the rest of the day. No news was due so I let my position sit feeling very confident that rates would fall and the indices would shoot up.
Upon checking my position at 1:00 (I had to go to class for that 3 hour period). I was up $37,000. A record gain. The bond were off their highs and so were the indices. I tried to get out of them as quickly as possible to secure the profit. I got out of the indices quickly but had to go to class again before I could exit the bonds. I placed stop losses to allow them to run up more if they needed to. While I was in class the emini s&p according to Bob Pisani caused a huge decline in the market. Luckily I had my stops in place and was out of the indices. Upon completion I was up $30,000. (2nd best P/L so far this year).
Upon entering the trading floor this morning I noticed that the fixed income futures had jumped higher on news that the retail sales were lower than expected (Redbook yy and mm). This was interpretted as a possibility that the economic over expansion was slowing down and the fed might not raise rates after the obvious rate hike coming Dec 13th. This strength from the bonds seemed to trigger a rise in the index futures as well (based on timing). This was a signal that the two would be correlated today. Housing data came out around 10:00 which said that the housing market was decreasing softly, which was good news when added to the redbook from earlier.
Several days ago housing data came out showing that the market was still booming, which blew up the rates on bonds. With this new data, I looked back to see where the bonds were settled before first set of housing numbers. Bond prices had a long way to run before they got to that point. Stocks as well had similar distances to run up before hitting resistance areas.
After getting long I placed stop loss orders and checked to see if any more news would come out the rest of the day. No news was due so I let my position sit feeling very confident that rates would fall and the indices would shoot up.
Upon checking my position at 1:00 (I had to go to class for that 3 hour period). I was up $37,000. A record gain. The bond were off their highs and so were the indices. I tried to get out of them as quickly as possible to secure the profit. I got out of the indices quickly but had to go to class again before I could exit the bonds. I placed stop losses to allow them to run up more if they needed to. While I was in class the emini s&p according to Bob Pisani caused a huge decline in the market. Luckily I had my stops in place and was out of the indices. Upon completion I was up $30,000. (2nd best P/L so far this year).
posted by Shiptastic at 10:17 AM
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