Capacity Utilization and Industrial Output
Today the Capacity utilization % and the Industrial output for December come out at 9:15. If they are lower than expected short term rates should drop, which would suggest going long on the bonds. Apparently the Fed's next rate hike will be highly data dependent, which means movement on news will be greatly exaggerated.
The numbers came in higher than expected. 80.7 for Cap utilization and +.6% for the Industrial output. On this news I shorted the bonds, expecting rates to rise. After 15 minutes the bonds have drifted very slowly downward, possibly because this news was not as bad as it seemed. I have stops in place and will be patient with the play. I really believe this will have a day long impact on the bonds.
Indices gapped down this morning and look like they will continue to drop. Once volume drops down I'll try and scalp the indices.
Something to note, the 2-year futures reacted the way I hoped they would, but the 5, 10 and 30 did not react as much. This makes sense, because on short term news related to rate hikes and cuts, the 2-year is the key indicator.
After stopping out on the 5, 10 and 30 and making only 1109.38 in the two year. I stopped trading at $(5,468.13). Overall I'm happy though because the theory that short term fed speculation is really only usefull on the 2-year contract. Good job also keeping losses to a minimum.
The numbers came in higher than expected. 80.7 for Cap utilization and +.6% for the Industrial output. On this news I shorted the bonds, expecting rates to rise. After 15 minutes the bonds have drifted very slowly downward, possibly because this news was not as bad as it seemed. I have stops in place and will be patient with the play. I really believe this will have a day long impact on the bonds.
Indices gapped down this morning and look like they will continue to drop. Once volume drops down I'll try and scalp the indices.
Something to note, the 2-year futures reacted the way I hoped they would, but the 5, 10 and 30 did not react as much. This makes sense, because on short term news related to rate hikes and cuts, the 2-year is the key indicator.
After stopping out on the 5, 10 and 30 and making only 1109.38 in the two year. I stopped trading at $(5,468.13). Overall I'm happy though because the theory that short term fed speculation is really only usefull on the 2-year contract. Good job also keeping losses to a minimum.
posted by Shiptastic at 10:16 AM
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